August 3rd Daily Observation

The August 3rd Daily Observation from Michael Orr and The Cromford Report on our annual sales rate, broken down by cities within the Metro area:

“August 3 – The annual sales rate continues to decline with no sign of any deceleration. Here are some examples for the single family market:

• Phoenix – 14,544 per year, lower than any year since 2000 except 2007-2008
• Mesa – 5,855 per year – lower than any year since 2000 except 2007- 2009
• Scottsdale – 4,471 per year – lower than any year since 2000 except 2007-2010
• Glendale – 3,329 per year – lower than any year since 2000 except 2007-2008
• Chandler – 3,743 per year – lower than any year since 2000 except 2007-2009
• Gilbert – 4,447 per year – higher than 2001-2003 and 2006-2009
• Surprise – 3,053 – higher than 2001-2004 and 2007-2008
• Peoria – 2,762 – higher than 2001-2002 and 2007-2009
• Queen Creek – 3,081 – higher than 2001-2008
• Paradise Valley – 357 – higher than 2006-2010

The annual sales rate will stabilize and then start to rise once demand starts to recover from the slump that started this time last year. The only cities where this may possibly be starting to happen are Cave Creek, Eloy and Florence. “

Break down, active listings versus July sales/closings:

This morning,   our active inventory (in the MLS or Multiple Listing Servie) is apaproximately 23,950.   This number is down nearly 600 properties from early last month.   Here is an approximate break down by price ranges as of today, as pulled from ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service):

Active (for sale, ARMLS – Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service) listings:
◾ 8872 priced $200,000 and lower (140 fewer than one month ago)
◾ 10928 priced $201,000 to $500,000 (about 300 fewer than one month ago)
◾ 2781 priced $501,000 to $1,000,000 (84 fewer than one month ago)
◾ 904 priced $1,001,000 to $2,000,000 (26  fewer than one month ago)
◾ 465 homes priced $2,001,000 and above (34  fewer than one month ago)

About 6832 dwellings closed sales during July  (indicated in ARMLS – Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service):
◾ 3543 priced up to $200,000 (or roughly 2.5 months of inventory)
◾ 2834 priced $201,000 to $500,000 ( or roughly 3.9 months of inventory)
◾ 363  priced $501,000 to $1,000,000 (or roughly 7.7 months of inventory)
◾ 76  priced $1,001,000 to $2,000,000 (or roughly 12  months of inventory)
◾ 16 homes priced $2,000,001 and above (or roughly 29 months of inventory)