“….. prices may actually appreciate the most this year, the
firm expects Orlando, Fla. home prices to rise 11.7%, hard-hit Bakersfield,
Calif. 11.1%, government jobs-driven Washington, D.C. 9.3%, foreclosure-riddled
Phoenix, Ariz. 8.9%, and sales-heavy Miami, Fla. 8.8%”. [Has The Housing Markt Hit Its Bottom? Forbes.com, 1/10/12]

More good news on the Phoenix real estate front?  In Phoenix-area housing may be on the mend (azcentral.com 1/6/12), per the Information Market, our median price hit bottom last August at a$112,000, but by last month, had risen to $120,000.  Further, Mike Orr of the Cromford Report is quoted as saying “the housing market definitely saw the bottom in August or September of last year.”

Considering this morning’s total ARMLS (our MLS or listing service) is about 18,500 dwellings, and this number is roughly 1/2 what we had first quarter 2011, I would strongly agree.   I will add that the article linked above says inventory has dropped to 25,000.  That includes homes in AWC category – under contract, not yet pending – homes that aren’t truly available for sale – so not the real number,  in my opinion.

This is welcome progress for home owners, as well as current or prospective sellers.  The sinking floor on pricing has firmed, and in some locals, finding traction.  For home buyers out to take advantages of shockingly low prices (I am showing a home this afternoon that is listed at $10,000 higher than it sold for in 1998 …. and it’s in nice condition), and even more shockingly great interest rates:   you will find pickings are a little slim.  You may have to modify your wish list to the most important bullets in order to acquire a home in the location you want to live.

• CNBC reports this week that the supply of homes on market fell to its lowest level in about 20 months, leading some to guess that 2011 is the “bottom,” and possibly setting the stage for “rapid” ascent.
• Although CoreLogic, as featured by Phoenix Business Journal, says that home prices in Phoenix and Arizona continue to fall, Arizona Real Estate Trends points out that report is MISLEADING, and that “This is an example of a misleading report from Core Logic. Year over year prices are down, but month over month pricing is increasing. PRICES ARE NOT CONTINUING TO FALL, they are increasing. The median sales price in Maricopa County in December of 2010 was $115,000 and remained flat until this November when the median resale home price rose to $119,900 (Arizona Real Estate Trends, 12/6/2011).”
• In agreement with this, our local experts at  The Cromford Report  declare definate movement toward Phoenix Real Estate Market correction this week, stating that square foot price is up across all prices ranges from lowest points;  and that annual appreciation moved from -12% to just over zero this month.
• In early October, I reported that active MLS listings numbered 19,654.  This number has dropped to about 19,304 today; down about 350 residential listings across Phoenix metro.  While some of this recent decrease may be seasonal (some sellers take their homes off the market during the holidays, or decide to list it after the beginning of the year), inventory continues its overall decline.  Less inventory equals fewer homes a seller competes with and eventually will lead to pricing increases.

Updates from STAT (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service’s monthly statistics report for Phoenix Metro), Nov 4, 2011:

• Prices getting a lift?   The median listing prices rose in October by 6.1% to $139k.
• Sales prices not budging yet:  The metro area median fell slightly to $112,000, and the average more slightly to $153,400.
• Month over month sales have been trending down since June.  Metro Sales dropped in October from September – but have done so in 7 of the last 10 years, so this drop is viewed as seasonal.
• Goodbye buyer’s market:  With less than 4 months of inventory listed, market forces are “balanced”   between sellers (supply) and buyers (demand).   While this balance varies across micro markets, or communities, it’s considered a metro-wide sign of market health.
• My 2 cents:  Inventory is sitting in the mid to high 19,000′s across the valley.  At this moment, there are 19,654 active/available MLS listings. Four weeks ago, that number was about 19,586.  However, inventory has dropped in several micro markets (towns or communities).  Well priced homes in great condition continue to spark multiple offers – and this is not rarely.
• Pending foreclosures declined by only 344 units to 23,211 in October.  STAT formerly predicted that this number would drop below 10,000 before end of 2011, but the easing of this trend prompts ARMLS to modify their prediction on this  accomplishment, saying this drop may not occur for several months… perhaps beyond 2012.
• Distress sales were nearly 65% of total sales in october.  Distress sales include foreclosures and short sales, with foreclosures the larger number of the two (35% in october, with short sales at 29%).  However, short sales are increasing with foreclosure sales decreasing, indicating banks are beginning to pull the trigger at short sale stage, which helps more owners to avoid foreclosure.

With homes  prices we haven’t seen in 7 to 10 years in nearly all Phoenix valley communities…. mortgage interest rates we haven’t seen in our lifetimes …. and in many instances, a house payment less than rent would be for the same house…it may be time make that move, or acquire that rental.   Jack Hough of Smart Money weighs in:  It’s Time to Buy That House

• Total MLS inventory has been ticking upward for the last couple of weeks; up nearly 300  hundred residences from the number I reported 9/2/11.  At the moment, that number is 19,586 active listings in our local MLS.   Homes are still selling quickly, and the small gain in active inventory may just signal a slight seasonal slow down as we move away from busy summer months and toward the holidays.
• Yesterday’s Arizona Republic discussed the several year’s market collapse in the valley in Phoenix-area real estate collapse echoed troubles.  This analysis/retrospective points out that our real estate troubles came in waves, first due to problematic mortgages,  later driven by owners hurt with employment loss.  More pertinent is that foreclosures are seen ebbing from some areas, with home prices beginning to stabilize, and in rare cases, even climb a bit.
• “The age of the foreclosure is coming to an end,” Michael Orr (Cromford Report publisher).  “I think we’re about 80% through this foreclosure mess(Tom Ruff, the Information Market).”
• Also in this article:   The luxury market has been the last pricing segment significantly affected by foreclosures.  But upper-end owners have not been  immune to  job and/or stock market losses, and short sales and foreclosures on  jumbo mortgaged homes began escalating in 2009.  Because of reluctance at absorbing these sizeable asset losses (higher loans aren’t federally insured), banks have delayed foreclosing on some properties.  As a result, some  still have to work through the system.   Luxury homes entered the distressed scene a bit later than everyone else, and may be the last segment to correct.

Ten years later, respectful memorial and workplace structures taking shape.

• Noticing fewer For Sale signs on your street than a year or two ago?  Phoenix home sales activity continues at somewhat slower, but still brisk pace.  Active listing inventory is still reducing, but the pace of that reduction has ebbed  slightly from earlier this summer.  As of this morning the active listings total about 19,291, down more than 600 listings from approximately 4 weeks ago.
• Stagnant sales no longer: Homes sales recorded in our MLS (multiple listing service) for August totalled about 8711.  This was higher than July’s approximate 8493, and about 1700 more dwellings sold in Phoenix last month that in August 2010.
• To quote the “experts”: The Case-Shiller Index, 8/30/11, reports that (bad news first) Phoenix home prices are down about 9% from June os 2010, however – now the good news-  they notched up .3% in June from the previous month.  Nationally, recent home price gains have erased 2011 first quarter drops.
• Mortgage rates are again at historic lows, but sadly,  many homeowners wanting to refinance are underwater (owing more than the home would sell or appraise for), or simply have credit scores too low to qualify given today’s stringent underwriting standards, see One-third of Americans Score Too Low for a Mortgage.

How will buyers, and therefore sellers, be affected in the near term?  National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun weighs in: click here.